“Write your own speeches and express hard truths in a polite way … remember, everyone is replaceable.” — Vaclav Havel, Maclean’s, Aug. 17, 1998.
Throughout my career I embraced Havel’s teachings, including the above dictum. I write this one month into U.S. President Donald Trump’s second term, and while it is hard to know just what to say, speaking some hard truths seems like a good place to start.
Former prime minister Stephen Harper certainly spoke hard truths in a January speech in Ottawa, saying, “… if I was still prime minister, I would be prepared to impoverish the country and not be annexed, if that was the option we’re facing.
”Ford Motor Co. CEO Jim Farley, said last month that Trump’s planned tariffs for Mexico and Canada would “… blow a hole in the U.S. industry,” and ultimately benefit foreign automakers.
I admire both Harper and Farley for speaking frankly about the perilous times we are living in.
Three months ago, our next federal election was going to be about defeating Justin Trudeau and eliminating the carbon tax. Today, Trudeau is on the way out, and the carbon tax is all but gone in terms of the ballot question for our impending federal campaign.
One can only hope that the upcoming campaign doesn’t devote a lot of airtime to how we might convince Mr. Trump to change his ways. There is nothing we can say that will influence him.
From where I sit, he ignores all countries and all conventional norms. Only a massive stock market decline and millions of citizens in America’s streets will move him off the disruptive path he is on.
If the Trump tariffs are imposed, Canadian exports will fall by over eight per cent, business investment will decline by over 10 per cent and as the Bank of Canada said recently, for the next two years, all projected Canadian economic growth will be wiped out.
Thousands of workers in the manufacturing sector, and others, will face layoffs. Consumer spending will fall, and no amount of flag-waving will alter the drag which rising unemployment and overall uncertainty will inflict upon our country.
Canada and its economy will survive, and in global terms will still be a strong country, but we will be a less prosperous one. Our current challenges — health care, climate change, and a growing number of families facing both food and housing insecurity — will be harder to address.
Last fall the Trudeau government was peddling a one-time $200 cheque to working Canadians earning under $150,000 a year along with a modest, and temporary, GST cut as a solution to our economic ills. The above commitments saw the government borrow $6 billion in a pathetic attempt to buy votes. It is no wonder that the official Opposition Conservatives held a 20-plus per cent lead in the polls and were widely expected to romp to victory in the election that must be held at some point this year.
The stakes are today much higher, and the primary ballot question will be who Canadians think can best lead our country in the face of the aggressive Trump agenda.
The hardest truth of all might just be whether we can admit that we have lived off U.S. defence for protection and this must change. We will need to increase defence spending and be prepared to assert our Arctic sovereignty. In a similar vein, we must double down on our NATO commitments and strengthen our bilateral relations with all other democracies.
As citizens we can evaluate our own choices when it comes to purchases, vacations and commitment to our country. We can also demand that those seeking our votes engage us in meaningful ways to preserve and strengthen our sovereignty.
This means we reject non-solutions such as political pablum that promises to cut taxes and improve services. Most of us know that is neither realistic nor doable.
We can meet our collective obligations to one another if those of us able to do so accept that we will pay more to help the country meet its challenges. We must support laid off workers and the already poor and marginalized.
The impending federal election presents us with an opportunity.
We can resolve to accept some hard truths ourselves as the first step towards continuing to build the kind of independent, free and progressive Canada that we want.
Paul Moist is a retired labour leader.